Brent at $110: Which African Economies Gain and Which Lose

Brent crude traded around $110 a barrel on October 16, 2026, up 3.7% on the day and at its highest level since May, Nairametrics reported. Diesel futures rose to $4.90 a gallon. The move followed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and a strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery, and Eurasia Group raised its estimate of the chance of wider escalation to 65%.

For Africa, Brent at $110 is not one story. It is two. Oil exporters collect more revenue. Fuel importers pay more for every litre and see that cost show up in inflation, currencies and budgets. Here is how the split looks country by country.

The winners: oil exporters

Nigeria

Nigeria's 2026 budget assumed an oil price of $60 to $65 a barrel. At $110, every barrel sold brings in far more than planned, which should help government revenue and foreign exchange inflows. In theory this gives the Central Bank of Nigeria more room to support the naira.

The gains are not clean. Nigeria removed its petrol subsidy, so higher crude prices pass straight to the pump. Petrol in Lagos now sells for ₦1,380 to ₦1,400 a litre. Energy inflation was 10.85% in September and headline inflation 14.63%, and higher fuel prices will push both up in the coming months. Domestic refining at the Dangote refinery helps with supply, but the refinery buys crude at international prices, so it does not shield consumers from a global price spike.

Angola

Angola is another exporter that benefits on the revenue side. But it also imports most of its refined fuel. In the first half of 2026, its fuel import bill reached Kz1.544 trillion, about $1.7 billion, up 47.8% on a year earlier. Fuel made up 23.2% of all imports. Higher crude prices raise export earnings, but they also make those imports dearer. The net effect is still positive for the government, though smaller than the headline price suggests.

Republic of Congo and Gabon

Both depend heavily on oil for government revenue and exports. Higher prices ease pressure on their budgets and on debt payments. As members of CEMAC, they also add to the region's pooled foreign reserves at the BEAC, which supports the CFA franc for the whole zone, including importers like Cameroon.

The losers: fuel importers

Kenya

Kenya's energy regulator, EPRA, raised pump prices on October 14. Petrol rose by Sh12.93 to Sh226.96 a litre, diesel went to Sh227.76 and kerosene to around Sh220. Fuel feeds into transport fares, food prices and electricity costs, so expect Kenya's inflation to rise in the next two readings. The shilling will also face pressure as the oil import bill grows.

Ghana

Ghana imports most of its refined fuel and has spent the past two years rebuilding its finances after a debt restructuring. Higher oil prices threaten the progress made on inflation and could weaken the cedi. Ghana produces some crude, but not enough to offset its import costs.

South Africa

South Africa adjusts fuel prices monthly based on international prices and the rand exchange rate. A sustained move to $110 will feed into the next adjustment and into transport and food inflation, which the South African Reserve Bank watches closely when setting interest rates.

Tanzania, Senegal, Rwanda and the Sahel

These economies import nearly all their fuel. Senegal has started producing oil and gas, but output is still too small to change its overall position much. Landlocked countries such as Rwanda and those in the Sahel pay extra for transport from the coast, so every rise in crude prices hits them harder.

Cameroon

Cameroon subsidises pump prices and is already feeling the strain. The government spent CFA57 billion in September alone on fuel support, and the subsidy on diesel reached CFA430 per litre in October, according to official figures. A price rise is not ruled out.

What the African Energy Chamber says

The African Energy Chamber has framed the moment in the same terms: exporters like Nigeria, Angola, Congo and Gabon gain, while importers including Kenya, Tanzania, Ghana, Senegal, Rwanda, South Africa and the Sahel states bear the cost. The Chamber has used the spike to argue for more investment in African refining capacity so the continent depends less on imported products.

What investors should watch

• Currencies. Expect pressure on the Kenyan shilling, Ghanaian cedi and South African rand. The naira could benefit from higher inflows, though Nigeria's own inflation will limit gains.
• Inflation data. October and November figures in importing countries will show the first effects. Central banks that were planning rate cuts may wait.
• Sovereign debt. Exporters' bonds may hold up better than importers' in the near term.
• Equities. Oil producers and upstream firms listed on the NGX and JSE stand to gain. Airlines, transport companies and manufacturers with high energy costs face margin pressure.
• Policy responses. Watch for subsidy changes, tax cuts on fuel or emergency price controls, especially in countries with elections ahead.

How long could prices stay high?

The rally is driven by supply risk, not a shortage of oil today. If tensions in the Middle East ease, prices could fall back quickly. If attacks continue or spread, $110 may be a floor rather than a peak. Eurasia Group's 65% escalation estimate suggests markets should prepare for the second case.

For African economies, the gap between exporters and importers will widen the longer prices stay up. Exporters get a cushion. Importers get a bill.

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