NMDPRA Approves Fresh Petrol Import Permits Despite Rising Dangote Output

Nigeria's midstream regulator has approved another round of petrol import permits for the fourth quarter of 2026 — its largest allocation of the year — even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery pushes ahead with a Federal High Court case seeking to void such licences altogether. The move deepens a running dispute between Africa's biggest refinery and its regulator over how much room imported fuel should still have in a market the refinery says it can now supply on its own.

What Happened

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has cleared six marketers — Matrix Energy, A.A. Rano, AYM Shafa, NIPCO, Pinnacle Oil and Bono Energy — to import a combined 830,000 metric tonnes of petrol in the fourth quarter, equivalent to roughly 9 million barrels. NMDPRA spokesperson George Ene-Ita confirmed the approvals, issued on September 18, telling reporters they were granted "to ensure there're no supply gaps heading into the critical end-of-year period."

The Q4 figure extends a permit structure that has run since the start of the year and marks the fourth consecutive quarterly increase: the same six companies split 180,000 tonnes in the first quarter, before the window widened to 720,000 tonnes in the second quarter and topped 800,000 tonnes in the third. Each import round has retained the same roster of beneficiaries.

The timing places the approvals squarely inside an active legal fight. Dangote Petroleum Refinery has asked the Federal High Court in Abuja to void the import licences, arguing they are unnecessary given the refinery's domestic capacity and that the NMDPRA's continued issuance of the permits violates Sections 317(8) and (9) of the Petroleum Industry Act, which the refinery says restrict import licensing to cases of a genuine domestic supply shortfall. The case, filed in a suit dated September 6, 2024 and expanded through a fresh filing against the Attorney-General of the Federation in May, is due back in court on October 7, 2026.

Historical Context

The dispute predates the current NMDPRA leadership. Since starting operations in 2024, Dangote Refinery has repeatedly pushed for marketers to source petroleum products domestically rather than import them, a position that put it at odds with the regulator's former leadership under Farouk Ahmed, who resisted measures he argued could hand a single refinery an unchecked monopoly over Nigeria's fuel supply — a public disagreement that spilled into direct exchanges between Ahmed and Aliko Dangote.

The balance of supply has shifted substantially since. NMDPRA data cited in industry reporting shows domestic refineries covered about 76.7% of petrol supply in the first quarter of 2026, rising to nearly 80% over the first half of the year, while imports fell roughly 60% year-on-year to near 965.5 million litres over the same period. Earlier reporting from February had put Dangote's share of national petrol supply as high as 92%, underscoring how quickly the refinery — which management says can process up to 650,000 barrels per day — has come to dominate a market that relied almost entirely on imports for decades, following the prolonged shutdown of Nigeria's state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna.

Why It Matters for Africa

The case tests a foundational question for Nigeria's downstream oil sector: whether a single, dominant domestic refiner should be allowed to effectively close the door on imports once it can meet national demand, or whether a regulator's duty to guard against monopoly risk justifies keeping an import channel open even at reduced volumes. How that question is resolved will shape investment incentives not just for Dangote, but for any future large-scale refining project on the continent — a live concern given how many African economies remain structurally dependent on imported refined fuel despite domestic or regional refining potential.

There are also more immediate stakes. Dangote Refinery said in late August that it holds the regulator's import permits responsible for a spike in petrol imports that it warned could make holding excess local inventory commercially unsustainable — a dynamic that, if it discourages continued investment in local refining capacity, would run counter to the currency and import-substitution benefits Nigeria has been counting on since the refinery came online. At the same time, NMDPRA's justification — avoiding supply gaps heading into the year-end demand period — reflects a regulator unwilling to bet national fuel security entirely on one facility, however large.

The dispute also lands against a backdrop of renewed pressure in international gasoline markets, where tightening supply conditions and elevated crude prices tied to Middle East tensions have made import costs more sensitive than they might otherwise be — raising the economic stakes of getting the import-versus-domestic balance right.

Market Data & Key Numbers

What Businesses and Investors Should Watch

• The October 7 court hearing, which could determine whether the NMDPRA retains discretion to issue import licences alongside a dominant domestic refiner.

• Quarterly import allocation trends, given four consecutive quarterly increases despite falling import dependence overall.

• Dangote Refinery's pricing and distribution decisions, including its recent restriction of product sales to the Lagos market, which adds further complexity to the domestic supply picture.

• International gasoline market conditions, since a tighter global market raises the cost consequences of import-dependent supply gaps.

• NMDPRA leadership and policy signals, given the shift in tone from the previous administration's resistance to import curbs.

Practical Guide: Key Takeaways

For Businesses

• Fuel marketers and distributors should track the legal outcome closely, as a court ruling in Dangote's favor could abruptly end the current import permit structure.

• Businesses dependent on stable petrol supply should watch for further Dangote distribution restrictions, which have already begun affecting specific regional markets.

For Investors

• Weigh the regulatory and legal uncertainty as a risk factor for any exposure to Nigerian downstream petroleum assets, including the newly listed Dangote Refinery shares.

• Monitor how a ruling either way could affect the refinery's medium-term earnings power, given its stated view that import competition undercuts commercial sustainability.

For General Readers

• Understand that petrol import permits and domestic refining capacity are not mutually exclusive in the short term — the regulator has framed the imports as a supply-gap buffer, not a rejection of domestic refining.

• The underlying legal question — how much authority a regulator retains once a single company can meet most or all domestic demand — has implications well beyond fuel markets.

How MarketPulse Africa Helps

Disputes between major African industrial players and their regulators can move quickly and carry significant consequences for energy security, pricing and investment. MarketPulse Africa tracks this case and Nigeria's broader downstream petroleum sector as part of our energy and commodities coverage, helping readers follow how the Dangote-NMDPRA dispute connects to fuel prices, import policy and the future of refining investment across the continent.

Conclusion

The NMDPRA's decision to expand petrol import permits for a fourth straight quarter — even as Dangote's refinery pushes to have such licences voided in court — sets up a consequential test of how Nigeria balances energy security against the ambitions of its largest industrial investment. With the case due back before the Federal High Court on October 7, the coming weeks will show whether regulatory caution or refinery self-sufficiency wins out. Follow MarketPulse Africa for continued coverage as the dispute unfolds.