Nigeria FX Demand Hits $18.34bn in Q2 2026, Its Highest Since 2011

Nigeria FX demand climbed to $18.34 billion in the second quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly total since the third quarter of 2011. The figure comes from the Financial Markets Dealers Association's Q2 2026 FX Market Update, which draws on Central Bank of Nigeria data, as reported by Kelechi Mgboji at Nairametrics. Demand rose 12.84% from about $16.25 billion in the first quarter and 52.42% from $12.03 billion a year earlier.

What stands out is not the size of the total but what drove it. Dollars for financial services, not imports, now dominate the market.

What is driving Nigeria FX demand

FMDA groups FX use into "invisibles", meaning services and financial flows, and merchandise imports. In Q2 2026 the balance tilted heavily toward invisibles.

• Invisibles: a record $13.24 billion, or 72.19% of the total, up 93.16% from $6.85 billion a year earlier.
• Financial services: $9.64 billion, or 52.58% of all FX use, up 72.81% from $5.58 billion in Q2 2025.
• Business services: up 191.39% to $1.66 billion.
• Other services: up 118.66% to $1.12 billion.
• Merchandise imports: $5.10 billion, down 1.49% year on year.

Financial services demand alone was about 1.9 times the value of all merchandise imports. FMDA linked this to cross-border investment and payment flows but did not give a detailed breakdown. Nairametrics cautions that the number should not be read solely as investment repatriation or capital flight, since it can include a range of legitimate cross-border payments.

There is also a reporting gap. FMDA recorded $542.56 million of invisible demand as unallocated because June figures did not fully reconcile.

Import demand is falling

Within merchandise imports, the picture was mixed:

• Industrial imports fell 22.67% to $1.86 billion.
• Oil imports fell 9.75% to $1.25 billion.
• Manufactured products rose 77.73% to $982.09 million.
• Food-related FX use rose 26.20% to $649.99 million.

The drop in oil imports is consistent with more refined fuel being produced at home. The fall in industrial imports is a less comfortable signal for manufacturers, who rely on imported machinery and inputs.

Supply held up without the CBN

Higher demand did not come with a matching rise in central bank dollar sales. The opposite happened.

• CBN FX sales dropped 66.73% to $418.08 million, from $1.26 billion in Q1 2026.
• First-half CBN sales totalled $1.67 billion, the lowest for any half-year since FMDA's records began in 2008.
• Autonomous inflows, meaning dollars from exporters, investors, remittances and other non-CBN sources, reached $23.31 billion, the highest since Q1 2020. They made up 74.15% of all inflows, the highest share in 13 years, against about 64% across 2025.
• Total inflows slipped 2.96% to $31.43 billion, with CBN-sourced inflows down 20.44% to $8.12 billion.
• Total outflows fell 19.22% to $8.93 billion.

Net FX flows came to $22.50 billion, the highest since Q4 2019, and first-half net flows reached $43.84 billion, up 47.24% from the same period of 2025. Nairametrics stresses that net flows do not translate one for one into higher external reserves.

What it means for the naira and investors

For currency watchers, the key point is that the market cleared record demand with the central bank largely on the sidelines. A market where most dollars come from private sources is closer to the willing-buyer, willing-seller system the CBN has been aiming for since it unified exchange rate windows.

That shift has trade-offs:

1. Less intervention firepower used. Lower CBN sales help preserve reserves and reduce the risk of a sudden shortfall.
2. More sensitivity to sentiment. When autonomous flows dominate, a change in portfolio investor mood or oil receipts can move the naira faster, because the CBN is supplying less of the market.
3. Financial flows dominate. With financial services taking more than half of all FX use, the naira's direction depends more on investment and payment flows than on how much fuel or machinery the country imports.

The data also fits with the CBN's push to make trade payments easier. Governor Olayemi Cardoso has been pursuing direct settlement arrangements with China, which we covered in our report on the CBN's Nigeria-China payments talks. Smoother settlement could reduce some pressure on dollar demand for imports over time.

How 2026 compares with 2025

The quarter extends a trend that began last year. Nairametrics had earlier reported that FX use in 2025 reached $50.93 billion, up 91.1% and the highest annual level since 2019. Of that, $30.99 billion went to invisibles and $19.94 billion to imports. Total inflows in 2025 were $109.9 billion, with autonomous inflows up 25.12% to $70.54 billion, or 64.21% of the total.

If the second half of 2026 follows the first, this year's FX use could pass 2025's total, with invisibles taking an even larger share. The next FMDA update, covering Q3, will show whether financial services outflows kept rising after June.

Do you think rising financial services demand is a sign of deeper market access, or of capital heading for the exit?